Why I Think the War in Ukraine Will Escalate

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By the author of The Prepper’s Guide to Post-Disaster Communications and Zombie Choices

If we follow the breadcrumb trail, eventually, it leads us to a destination. In this case, that destination is a conclusion. Here are the breadcrumbs of the Ukrainian war. Come to your own conclusion.

Increased buildup of forces on all sides

For starters, we’re seeing a lot of buildup of even more NATO weapons and troops throughout Europe.

Take the US Patriot missiles that have begun to pop up all over Europe. Why were those missiles placed there in the first place? For preparation of the battlefield. Why would this action occur unless it was thought to be a wise precaution?

It’s not an action without consequences, however, and it seems to have made Russia rather angry. According to Russia, these Patriot missile systems will classify as legitimate military targets if they are used in defense of Ukraine.

Keep in mind that if one of those Patriot missile systems is hit, and if it’s not covered up as being an accident, then you’re looking at a direct attack on NATO forces which causes Article 15 to go into effect and fully starts World War 3.

We’ve also just started putting Typhon weapon systems in Germany, which, of course, Russia has also said they really don’t like. They claim it’s a violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

Russia is doing its own fair share of prepping the battlefield too.

They just loaded an RS-24 Yars ICBM missile into a silo near Moscow the other day. Admittedly, this is something that Russia does every year for their “Strategic Missile Force Day.” You know, because Russia has missile days.

As we’ve pointed out here at The Organic Prepper before, though, sometimes annual training programs happen at a very convenient time to send a message. The Kremlin would have known that this would cause sparks throughout the international community. And then they did it anyway.

Alexey Sokolov, who is the commander of the Kozelsk missile formation, said, “it will allow yet another ICBM to enter combat duty as scheduled.”

As scheduled?

The guys over at Forward Observer point out that if Russia is going to hit Ukraine with a big ol’ missile, they’re not going to use an ICBM to do so. They could use a tactical nuke on a much smaller missile.

ICBMs are saved for targets that are a lot farther away.

Russian troops are also showing up in Belarus for training again. This time, they’re training for urban operations and attacking strongholds. Why are they engaging in this type of training at the moment? Because that’s where they’re about to head to – the cities of Ukraine. In particular, I think that Kiev is going to get hit hard with a Russian troop presence.

Openly stating where people are at

It wasn’t long ago one was deemed a conspiracy theorist to say that NATO forces were actually inside Ukraine. Now, this is openly admitted. Why? Because the cat is out of the bag. Things have escalated to the point that there is no longer any purpose in denying physical presence in Ukraine.

We currently have troops over there as “part of a program to attempt to track the billions of dollars in weaponry being handed out to its forces.”

England went so far as to say that, yeah, not only are English commandos over there right now but that these commandos “supported other discreet operations in a hugely sensitive environment and with a high level of political and military risk.”

(Looking for more information on the four levels of disaster? Check out our free QUICKSTART Guide.)

Strengthened alliances

We’ve seen a number of moves over the past several months that have exhibited a strengthening of ties between China and Russia. Remember the Russia sanctions? Who stepped in almost automatically and said, “We’ll buy and sell you stuff?”


If you read Unrestricted Warfare, you see how China argues that all future military engagements that they participate in necessitate strong alliances with strong nations. They’re building that up now. So what are they preparing for?

We’ve already seen how they’re talking about taking Taiwan. We know that is on the table for them. They also know that we’re pledged to defend them. At least on paper.

China has recently been signing a number of deals with Saudi Arabia to jump on the oil availability there. Personally, I can’t help but wonder if the Chinese have studied the problems of oil during World War 2 and have decided they don’t want to have the same problems. I also think it’s interesting that the deal involved their installing the notorious spyware of Huawei in Saudia Arabia for cloud computing. I think this could lead to China getting some very good deals on Saudi Arabian oil.

The Ukrainians think things will escalate.

A recent report from The Washington Post has detailed this. There are numerous reports of Ukrainians preparing “nuclear backpacks” – aka bug-out bags. Even children are carrying these around now. One mother in the article details how she has told her son to carry his with him everywhere. It contains toys, applesauce, books, and other similar items.

Other Ukrainians are stocking survival retreats out in the boonies, filled with generators, gasoline, and food.

The Ukrainian government is building additional nuclear shelters and distributing nuclear survival information to its citizens at the moment as well.

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So, where do the breadcrumbs lead us? 

Let’s see, massive troop buildups on both sides, new alliances being made and strengthened, the Ukrainian people themselves thinking things are going to escalate…

Well, I don’t know about you, but I don’t see this leading anywhere pretty.

What do you think?

Do you expect things to escalate? Do you believe the US will become involved? What about NATO? Tell us what you’re thinking in the comments.

About Aden

Aden Tate is a regular contributor to TheOrganicPrepper.com and TheFrugalite.com. Aden runs a micro-farm where he raises dairy goats, a pig, honeybees, meat chickens, laying chickens, tomatoes, mushrooms, and greens. Aden has four published books, What School Should Have Taught You, The Faithful Prepper An Arm and a Leg, The Prepper’s Guide to Post-Disaster Communications, and Zombie Choices. You can find his podcast The Last American on Preppers’ Broadcasting Network.


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