Rethink Energy UK is predicting a glut of polysilicon resulting in a fall within the worth of the principle element of photo voltaic cells by 2023.
Nineteen Chinese language firms are increasing capability with a view to produce thousands and thousands of tons “the almost definitely end result is one other decade of overcapacity and costs bumping alongside at marginal manufacturing prices.” In response to lead analyst Andries Wantenaar, costs for polysilicon and therefore photo voltaic modules will proceed to rise throughout 2022 as provide continues to run in need of demand. Nonetheless, then, provide will leap forward once more as new factories go browsing and costs will drop.
“From January 2023 this may start to vary. Costs will enter a relentless decline as new factories come on-line throughout China’s periphery. Polysilicon manufacturing capability will rise from 800,000 tons in the present day, to 1.1 million tons by the top of 2022, then to between 1.4 million and 1.7 million tons by the top of 2023.
“Wafer thicknesses are being considerably lowered — the swap from 175-micrometer to 155-micrometer means a 12.9% discount in polysilicon per watt, which explains why the above graph has the height polysilicon worth in late 2022 by the height module worth in late 2021. The polysilicon factories are being run at a really excessive capability issue of 97%, at the very least whereas costs are excessive. Mixed with the very immediate commissioning of recent services, we estimate that 216 GW’s value of polysilicon will likely be produced within the first half of 2023, up from 125 GW within the first half of 2022. Meaning the polysilicon provide can have largely caught up with photo voltaic demand and the remainder of the availability chain.”
Module costs are virtually fully guided by polysilicon worth. As polysilicon manufacturing will increase, module costs are anticipated to drop. Though the disruptive pandemic shutdowns have affected output, they haven’t led to any vital worth will increase of non-polysilicon parts equivalent to glass, backsheets, silver paste, and so on.
Some Western polysilicon manufacturing capability is being introduced again on-line, however it could not survive with out tariff safety and incentives equivalent to these included within the Biden administration’s Inflation Discount Act. If China’s photo voltaic panels grow to be absolutely excluded for the US, the EU, or different international locations, then India and Indonesia might be able to export to Western wafer factories.
LONGi (the world’s greatest wafer maker) expects that 1,000 GW could possibly be manufactured globally annually by 2030. Rethink Power predicts that “Earlier than lengthy manufacturing photo voltaic panels will likely be overtaken by grid integration as essentially the most urgent constraint on the energy transition.”
Featured graph courtesy of Rethink Power.
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